Outlook For Summer Air Travel: Addressing Congestion And Delay

Statement of Henry Krakowski, Chief Operating Officer, Air Traffic Organization


Chairman Rockefeller, Senator Hutchison, Members of the Subcommittee:

Thank you for inviting me here to testify about aviation congestion and delays. With me today is Michael Reynolds, the Acting Assistant Secretary for Aviation and International Affairs from the Department of Transportation (DOT). With the summer travel season upon us, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the DOT have a number of efforts underway to address aviation congestion and delays.

State of the Industry

In order to frame the issues properly, we must first take a look at the state of the aviation industry today. Record oil prices, a slowing economy, and increased competition are just a few factors that have created a number of significant challenges for airlines — challenges that certainly will change the face of the aviation industry in the years to come.

To meet these challenges, many carriers are raising fares, streamlining operations, and reducing service. With a few notable exceptions — JFK, Denver and San Francisco, for example — air traffic is down. General aviation operations are also down, due to fuel and insurance costs, further de-stressing the system. System-wide, FAA data shows the number of flights have decreased just over 2 percent, comparing May 2008 to May 2007.

While airlines are announcing reductions in service, and air traffic overall is down, it is likely that the busiest and most congested airports, particularly in the New York/New Jersey region, will not see a significant reduction. Even if they do see a downturn in the short run, history tells us that the aviation industry is very cyclical and that service will eventually return to — and exceed — the record levels we saw last year. Of the current delay minutes, 32.9 percent were at the three largest airports in the New York area (Newark Liberty International, LaGuardia Airport, and John F.

Kennedy International Airport), as compared to 33.4 percent from last year. Approximately one-third of the nation’s flights and one-sixth of the world’s flights either start or traverse the airspace that supports the New York/New Jersey/Philadelphia (NY/NJ/PHL) region.

In 2007, the aviation industry recorded the second worst year for delays since 1995; 27 percent of flights were delayed or cancelled in 2007. Both the frequency and the severity of ground delays were unprecedented. The costs of delays are huge — the Senate Joint Economic Committee estimates that last year flight delays alone cost passengers, airlines, and the U.S. economy over $40 billion. Additionally, the Travel Industry Association estimates that air travelers avoided over 41 million trips last year — leading to lost revenues and taxes of over $26 billion.

Even if carriers reduce flights this summer enough to reduce congestion, we still must do something to fix the problems that caused last summer’s horrible delays. We continue to work towards developing and providing solutions for all of the users of the nation’s airspace system.

As we frame the problem, we should note that we are living in the safest period in aviation history and we are constantly striving to make it safer still. In the past 10 years, the commercial fatal accident rate has dropped 57 percent. General aviation accidents are down. Safety is and will always be the primary goal of the FAA. Nothing we do to address congestion and delays will compromise the FAA’s safety mandate.

Summer 2008

A snapshot of the system comparing May 2008 to May 2007 for the 35 Operational Evolution Partnership airports is telling. As you know, we had far more severe weather during May 2008 than we had in May 2007, particularly in the Midwest. Previously, this would have caused major delays throughout the NAS, and had the FAA done nothing, we would have seen thousands of delayed and stranded passengers all over the country. Instead, our projected data estimates that the average minutes of delay for all flights decreased slightly (by almost 1 percent), while the number of flights with more than one hour of delay decreased by 8 percent. Although the data from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics has not been finalized, we are expecting to see that cancellations for May 2008 have decreased approximately 8 percent and on-time arrivals increased nearly 1 percent over May of last year.

According to FAA data, bad weather causes 70 percent of all delays. The situation is worse during the summer, unlike winter storms, which take time to develop and move slowly, summer storms can form quickly, stretch for hundreds of miles and travel rapidly over large portions of the country, grounding flights and sending chain reaction delays throughout the NAS. While we cannot control the weather, we can control how we manage the delays. With new dispersal headings, the use of
Adaptive Airspace Flow Programs (detailed below), new westbound departure routes out of New York, and other improvements, we are dealing more effectively with delays, using people, procedures, and technology.

In 1998, the FAA initiated Collaborative Decision Making (CDM), which represented a change in how the FAA communicates with the airlines in order to reduce delays. Prior to CDM, airlines were hesitant to share certain information for competitive reasons. Airlines now share schedule information with the FAA’s Command Center in Herndon, VA, including flight delays, cancellations and newly created flights. The Command Center uses this information to monitor airport arrival demand and take steps to reduce delays caused by heavy traffic and severe weather. Daily teleconferences are held every two hours between FAA air traffic managers, the airlines, and general aviation users, to discuss problems affecting capacity in the system and decide the most efficient, and collaborative solution as these situations arise.

For 2008, the FAA is implementing a number of new procedures and tools to enhance this system and to help manage and reduce congestion, outlined below:

Western Atlantic Route System

This initiative will increase capacity along the East Coast over the Atlantic this summer by reducing lateral separation from 90 miles to 50 miles for aircraft with avionics that provide an appropriate level of accuracy.

The area includes parts of Miami and New York high altitude airspace, as well as the San Juan Center Radar Approach Control airspace.In the past, lateral separation in oceanic airspace has been set at 90 miles between aircraft to maintain safe separation.

This initiative takes advantage of more precise aircraft position technology to allow for more Atlantic routes, 20 more transition route fixes and ultimately more access to the available airspace. The procedures became fully operational on June 5, 2008.

New Playbook Routes

Playbook routes are pre-coordinated routes that are developed to route aircraft around convective weather. New playbook routes will be in place this summer to provide alternate route options during periods of severe weather.

Nineteen new playbook routes will be available, including four Virginia Capes Area (VACAPES) routes designed for use in military airspace when it is available.

Integrated Collaborative Rerouting Tool

This is a new automated tool that depicts constrained airspace to airlines and other users of the NAS. This alleviates the need for the FAA to implement required reroutes, which may be less favorable to the users. It gives the airlines scheduling options and a more efficient utilization of the available airspace. The tool will allow pilots to provide early intent of their preferred routing around constrained areas, such as storms-affected areas.

Adaptive Airspace Flow Programs (AFPs)

The Airspace Flow Program was deployed in June 2006 and enables the FAA to manage adjustments to changing weather patterns. This is crucial during the summer convective weather season when storms grow rapidly and move across large swaths of the country. Before the FAA developed the technology to implement AFPs, the FAA's primary tool was a ground delay programs to prevent aircraft from taking off if they were headed for a delayed airport from any direction.

Ground delay programs remain valuable under appropriate circumstances, but sometimes have the unintended consequence of delaying flights that would otherwise not encounter severe weather.

Last summer from May 2 through August 30, 2007 a total of 58 AFPs were used. Use of these AFPs provided approximately $68 million in savings for the airlines. AFPs, which focus on particular areas in the sky where severe weather is expected, generally are a more equitable and efficient way of handling flights during severe weather.

The Adaptive Airspace Flow Program is an enhancement to the original program. This summer, the FAA can adjust the parameters of an AFP based on changing weather intensity, providing a more effective way to manage traffic during severe summer storms that will minimize delays.Using AFPs, the FAA is able to target only those flights that are expected to encounter severe weather. The targeted flights are issued an Expect Departure Clearance Time (EDCT), giving the airlines the option to accept a delayed, but predictable departure time, to take a longer route to fly around the weather or to make alternate plans.

Adaptive Compression

This program, launched in March 2007, automatically identifies unused arrival slots at airports affected by AFP or ground delays and moves other flights into those slots. This means that maximum arrival rates will be maintained, easing congestion and delays. Adaptive Compression saved $27 million for the airlines and 1.1 million delay minutes for the airlines and the flying public in its first year of operation.

Expanding Capacity

Expanding capacity in the overall NAS is always our preference, both on land and in the air. Airport capacity is critical. Along with our partners in the airport community, we have achieved significant progress in increasing capacity and we intend to continue to support this with our ongoing airport improvement programs. A brief overview of the status of recent airport projects as well as projects in the planning stages might be helpful.

The 35 airports included in the Operational Evolution Partnership (OEP) account for about 75 percent of all passenger enplanements. Much of the delay in air traffic can be traced to inadequate “throughput” (measured as arrival and departure rates) at these airports. Airfield construction (new runways, runway extensions, new taxiways, end around perimeter taxiways, and airfield reconfigurations) is the most effective method of increasing throughput.

Consequently, constructing new and/or extending runways, taxiways, and airfield reconfiguration are solution sets of the OEP’s.

Airport Development Domain.

Arrival and departure rates at the nation’s busiest airports are constrained by the limited number of runways that can be in active use simultaneously. The addition of new and extended runways or airfield reconfigurations will expand airport throughput at the target airports, and possibly for other airports in the same metropolitan area.

In most cases the airfield projects are sufficient to keep pace with forecasted demand. Since FY 2000, 14 of the 35 OEP airports have opened 15 airfield projects (including 13 new runways providing 20 miles of new runway pavement, 1 end around taxiway, and 1 airfield reconfiguration).

The projects have provided these airports with the potential to accommodate 1.6 million more annual operations and decrease average delay per operation at these airports by about 5 minutes, and reduce the potential for runway incursions.

Fonte: FAA Press Release 17/07/2008.